Gridiron Challenge: Week 11 previewBy Tristan H. Cockcroft No matter your stance on this Kurt Warner-for-MVP debate, one thing we all can agree on: He's by far the MVP into the 11th week of the Gridiron Challenge. Can you believe this guy once was priced at 5.5? Today, Warner is the game's top scorer, with 183 points, or 20.3 per game, and priced at 7.3, third-most in the GC. He has three consecutive 20-point performances coming out of the Cardinals' Week 7 bye, and frankly, had you kept him and just eaten the zero points during that bye, it probably would have paid off. (I still have a hard time justifying it, though, which explains why I was one of the 5,359 owners to let him go.) Interestingly, 4,674 GC owners have owned Warner, Mr. MVP, every week of the season including his bye. To put that into perspective, 5,218 teams have owned Peyton Manning every week including his bye, and Manning is averaging more than three points per game less than Warner. Drew Brees? He has been owned by 5,989 teams, although his points per game (20.1) is comparable to Warner's. Sounds like there's still a decent handful of people yet to hop on the Warner bandwagon. Look at his remaining schedule. Warner has to tangle with the Giants in Week 12 and the Eagles in Week 13, but outside of that, none of his other matchups is especially scary. He gets the Seahawks, the league's No. 31 pass defense, twice more, the No. 26-ranked Rams and the middling Vikings and Patriots. Even if that Giants game scares you, remember, they kicked him to the curb in 2004, so there's a motivational factor. The first of those Seahawks matchups is up next, in Seattle, and in his last game there, he threw for 337 yards and three scores. (I'll gloss over the fact that he was picked off five times; Seattle is a much weaker defense now.) I'm sticking with my pick for MVP -- probably through season's end. A 200-plus-point week?!
Congratulations go out to Shane Burdue, one of three GC players to crack the 200-point plateau this week; he was the leader with an astonishing 210 in Week 10. Burdue got 20-point weeks out of Anquan Boldin, Jay Cutler, Tony Gonzalez, Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson, Warner and the Carolina Panthers' defense. Startling fact: The only way Burdue could have improved his team would have been mostly to load up on more Jets, like their defense over Carolina's, and Thomas Jones over Jones-Drew. Also, merely switching Broncos receivers -- from Brandon Marshall to Eddie Royal -- would have given him a perfect score of 237. Can't complain about a team comprised entirely of top-five point-getters at their respective positions, though! Bull market: Invest now
Dallas Clark, TE, Colts (4.3 price tag): This week's matchup against the Texans is a plum one, as Clark has seven touchdowns in eight career games against them and 15 receptions for 199 yards and three scores in their past three meetings. But it's more than Week 11; looking ahead, Clark faces the Chargers, who have allowed a league-high 12.4 fantasy points per game to tight ends, in Week 12. In his final seven games, in fact, he'll face five of the nine teams that are worst at defending the tight end (Texans, Week 11, sixth; the aforementioned Chargers; Lions, Week 15, fifth; Jaguars, Week 16, ninth; and Titans, Week 17, eighth). Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys (5.2): Tony Romo's expected return breathes some life into this slumping Cowboys offense, but if you want to hop aboard the bandwagon, surely you can't do it picking Romo himself, as he's the second-priciest quarterback in the GC. Instead, pick Owens, the 13th-most expensive wide receiver in the game, who was hurt by three consecutive miserable performances while working with Brad Johnson. Owens and Romo hooked up for 33 touchdowns in 37 games from Week 1 of 2006 through Week 6 of this season, and a receiver with a near touchdown-per-game rate for that period of time is well worth picking up at such a discount. It's the cheapest he'll get, folks. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts (5.4): In my mind, his recent slump actually served to suppress his price more than it got me concerned about his long-term prognosis, because the Colts' passing game seems to have recaptured its rhythm of late and the upcoming schedule couldn't be sweeter. Indianapolis routinely pounds Houston, especially at home, and San Diego (Week 12), Cleveland (13) and Detroit (15) rank no higher than 21st against the pass. Cincinnati -- Wayne's Week 14 foe -- might rank 10th against the pass, but that's misleading. Opponents just pound that defense on the ground, but the way Joseph Addai has been running of late, I see no reason this won't be the Wayne-and-Manning show the rest of the way. One-week ponies: Week 11
Matt Forte, RB, Bears (@GB, 5.9): Not that the Packers' run defense had been doing anything of consequence to date -- it does rank 28th, after all -- but it will be hurt significantly by the season-ending knee injury suffered by Nick Barnett in Week 10. He represented one of their few safety valves up the middle and, you guessed it, Forte runs best between the tackles. That the Packers have yet to see Forte firsthand also plays into the rookie's favor. So does the fact that Kyle Orton might be back under center. Think the Bears might want to ease the burden on their healing quarterback? Me, too. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers (STL, 6.3): People tend to think of the Rams as a horrible pass defense, but the numbers tell a different story; they actually are wretched against the run and have been consistently so all season. Consider that St. Louis has surrendered a rushing touchdown in every game thus far and has afforded its opponent 200-plus yards three times. Plus, the Rams are noticeably worse on the road, meaning San Francisco has the prospect of mounting an early lead and running out the clock, with Gore, of course. By the way, in six career meetings with the Rams, Gore has six touchdowns and two 100-yard rushing performances. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (HOU, 7.2): He's expensive, for sure, and it's not like you need me to tell you he makes for a quality GC player in any particular week. But this is a matchup that helps separate him from the rest of the crowd; he positively owns the Texans. In 13 career meetings, Manning has averaged 272.2 passing yards with 31 touchdowns compared to five interceptions, and in the six of those that were played in Indianapolis, his numbers were 297.8, 18 and two. If you have him at a cheaper rate than this, I'd even advise retaining him through Week 15; after this week, Manning faces the Chargers, Browns, Bengals and Lions. Miami Dolphins defense/special teams (OAK, 4.6): Yes, I'm going back to the well for this one. I know, the Dolphins generated a so-so eight GC points in Week 10 with a letdown of a performance against the Seahawks, but is that really anything to complain about? Five of the top 10 defenses for the season recorded fewer points last week, and three others cost more entering this week. Could you have seen the Jets, who cost the same as the Dolphins, managing a Week 10-best 27? And yes, I'd say the Panthers were the smarter play; they faced the Raiders. That was a mistake, one I won't soon make again. If you can afford Carolina (DET, 5.1), sure, go for it, but if not, I'd be happy with Miami for 0.5 cheaper, facing the team the Panthers just dominated for 23 GC points. A couple more points in support of the Dolphins: The Raiders' Week 9 opponent, the Falcons, scored 23 GC points, and the Ravens had 17 points in Week 8. And then there's that tasty tidbit about West Coast teams traveling East through three time zones. They are 0-11 for the season, with Oakland the victim of two of those losses. Tyler Thigpen, QB, Chiefs (NO, 5.4): As with the Packers defending the run, the Saints haven't been great defending the pass -- they rank 27th -- and like the Packers, the Saints suffered a key season-ending defensive loss this past week, with Mike McKenzie hitting injured reserve with a broken right patella. That leaves his spot to a messy mix of Aaron Glenn (also hurt), Jason David and Usama Young, which plays right into Thigpen's hands and, to a lesser extent, Dwayne Bowe's. It also helps that Kansas City's defense isn't much better than New Orleans', meaning Drew Brees could help his Saints to an early lead and force Thigpen into passing situations for much of the day. Lots of upside here! Roddy White, WR, Falcons (DEN, 5.7): Champ Bailey doesn't look likely to return quite this soon, leaving Karl Paymah and rookie Jack Williams to handle his cornerback duties yet again, a significant downgrade. White will be their stiffest challenge yet; sorry, Dolphins and Browns, but any quarterback-receiver combo you threw at the Broncos doesn't measure up to Matt Ryan and White right now. (Yes, that includes Brady Quinn and Braylon Edwards.) White has five double-digit fantasy efforts in his past seven games, and Denver's pass defense -- which had a healthy, productive Bailey for its first seven contests -- ranks 28th. I'll let you do the math. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers (CAR, 5.1): Jonathan Stewart's nagging heel injury has quite a bit to do with this pick, and if I knew for sure that Stewart was going to get no more than the seven touches he did in Week 10 for the next month or so, I'd have put Williams in the "Bull market" group. It sounds like Stewart is going to play this week, but with Williams coming off a career day, there's no reason to drop his number of touches from the 20 he just received, at least not this week. Detroit's defense actually ranks worse against the run than Oakland's, and it was ripped for 311 yards and five touchdowns on the ground the past two weeks combined. No chance they'll be in my GC lineup
Baltimore Ravens defense/special teams, Kevin Boss, Chicago Bears defense/special teams, Braylon Edwards, David Garrard, Earnest Graham, Ryan Grant, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Vincent Jackson, Larry Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Eli Manning, Derrick Mason, Willis McGahee, Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson. Tristan's Week 11 lineup
Total points: 1,147.Percentage: 98.5. Overall rank: 3,099th. Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 126th.
Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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